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8 votes
Accepted

Meaning of Moving Average Term in ARIMA

For time series, it is better to think about the $\alpha_t$ terms (supposed to be an independent mean zero series) as innovations, not errors. They are not modeling errors of measurements, but the ...
kjetil b halvorsen's user avatar
7 votes

How to handle many time series?

If the 1200 products are closely related, so that trend (if any) and noise are likely to be correlated across products, a single model might make sense. If they are loosely related (so that they might ...
prubin's user avatar
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6 votes
Accepted

Forecasting with Holt's linear trend method

You could of course do that if you chose to, so I assume you are asking why Holt did not choose that formula. Suppose that the series $y_t$ actually satisfies a linear trend model, say $$y_t = a_0 + ...
prubin's user avatar
  • 39.5k
5 votes

How to handle many time series?

This problem is a multivariate (simply when you have more than one time-dependent variables) time series for which you can use Vector Auto Regression (VAR) technique among some others. Explanation and ...
Oguz Toragay's user avatar
  • 8,667
4 votes

How to handle many time series?

The demand of 1200 product will often be related. There might be common events (Christmas, some large accident, ...) that influence all or many of the demands, substitution effects, ... or there may ...
kjetil b halvorsen's user avatar
4 votes

Meaning of Moving Average Term in ARIMA

Kjetil's answer is very good, and the distinction between errors and innovations are important to understand. But there are also applications where measurement issues do result in MA-type errors. For ...
G_B's user avatar
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2 votes
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Multiple SKU forecast for Intermittent Demand

You can consider aggregating demand by grouping some SKU's (group that makes more business sense) and by which you can have more points for a group. You can train (though data seems less) and then ...
anjikum's user avatar
  • 984
1 vote

Forecasting based inventory management

In the practical situation, as far as I know, there are lots of manufacturing companies that even have not tried yet to close to this concept. In many cases, they only determined a simple point of ...
A.Omidi's user avatar
  • 8,940

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